Monday, December 18, 2006

Recession 2007?

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Will the democrat win in November, and now a clear movement emotionally by those being polled to get out of Dodge (Iraq), lead to a recession both in the U.S. and by default globally?

World connectivity drives economic growth both in the "Core" (Europe, North America including Canada, & Mexico, Asia and Australia) and the "Gap" (All those not in the Core). If the U.S. now has a mentality of withdrawal from the world conflicts will this mean a slow down in buying from the world?

Just last week the U.S. concluded meeting with China about the under valuation of the Yuan. The U.S. doesn't like it because it creates a large trade deficit and dollars flow out of the country undermining its value. However, China snapped back that the reason we have enjoyed low inflation in the U.S. is because of the cheap goods and if they change their valuation we will experience inflation. That would lead to the Federal Reserve raising rates, which would tighten money and slow the economy. A sneeze in the U.S. economy will cause a cold in the world economy.

The democrats also are looking to raise taxes in certain areas or just don't extend some of the 2001 tax cuts that have helped the economy. These variables signal a possible change in the last two years of the Bush administration. The media has never properly covered the expansion in this economy, and a lot of America never knew we have a good economy with historically low unemployment, low inflation, wages increased and savings was up.

So far the new leadership in Washington is not making claims one way or another on how they will govern, but their party will demand they act in a way that will lead to a recession.

Chris Mendelsohn
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Wednesday, December 13, 2006

“Hope without guarantees”

Our connection to the world.

The history of man is one of struggle. No matter if you believe man was created by god or evolved from the primordial soup, the more recent history of man has been one of struggle.

Man vs. other species, Man vs. the elements, Man vs. Man. No matter who we are at odds with we have, as a species, had to overcome the need for food, shelter and security. Those same situations still continue today, whether it is in Africa, Asia or South America, parts of the world still have man battling his surroundings to make a better home for himself and his family.

Those countries that have risen above some of this struggle form a “Core” as Thomas PM Barnett puts it in his book, “The Pentagon’s New Map” of connected countries. This connectivity is based on our common desire to trade goods and ideas across international boarders. Conspirators would contend that this is the “New World Order” that Pres. Bush (41) talked about during his presidency. Although Mr. Barnett is not against an open boarder policy, I am. I believe in the old saying that “good fences make good neighbors”

These countries outside the “Core” are called the “Gap” and are not as well connected. They have a much lower standard of living and are the regions were the U.S. and its partners have had to be involved militarily since the end of the cold war. Bosnia, Iraq, Africa are all places we have had to deal with because their populations and leaders do not want to participate in a friendly manner with the rest of the world.

They use excuses like,”it’s the devil in Washington” or, “it’s the Jews” fault, instead of understanding that their people will never get better, that their economies will never grow without the rest of the world.

Take Iran, they have all the oil they will ever need, they export enough to make them wealthy (930 million barrels per year), they consume less electricity then they produce yet they want nuclear energy. However, with their resistance to the west we have no choice but to doubt their intentions. If this were Mexico wanting to have nuclear energy, we might have to have a talk with them, but we would probably help them because we know they are very connected with our economy and not a military threat. Iran on the other hand is an unknown variable.

The United States is still the best hope for the world to live in peace. Despite what you might read, we are the only ones who can get people together but they must want to connect with the world. Our allies must also want the “Gap” countries to connect with the rest of the world, but until those countries understand that they will not be successful unless they can export goods other then oil, and that we will buy it, there will be no chance for peace.

All we have is hope for the future without guarantees.

Chris Mendelsohn
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Saturday, December 9, 2006

Iran to lead Holocaust study? LOL

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Image in the middle of the largest war ever fought on Earth by man, that a group of men planned and executed a second war that is almost beyond belief. Beginning in Poland, the Nazi’s began sterilizing the mentally ill, they then expanded it to just euthanize those same mentally ill. Once they had perfected their technique they used it on their true target. Jews, Gypsies and any other “undesirables”. It is estimated that 8-9 million died of which 6 million were Jewish, however, the other 2-3 million where Christians.

Now, some 60 years later Iran is leading a conference to determine if it happened. This is like the insane have a conference on whose reality is real the sane or theirs. There is only one reason why they do this and that is if they can put some doubt into what happened in Europe to the Jewish population, then they can reject the idea that Israel needed to be established and somehow justify that the Jews in Israel should be sent back to Europe.

This assumes that if the U.N. created Israel, they can now dissolve them. This is the mind of a mad man. Ahmadinejad is on a mission to bring about a great war with Israel and the west is doing nothing to stop him. They get bogged down in committee and it will be to all of our doom.

This website will continue to be a voice for what is the true intent of Iran, all you have to do is read their words:

“Thanks to the blood of the martyrs, a new Islamic revolution has arisen and the Islamic revolution of 1384 will, if God wills, cut off the roots of injustice in the world.”
and
“The wave of the Islamic revolution will soon reach the entire world.”
- Ahmadinejad

by Chris Mendelsohn
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Friday, December 8, 2006

"Iraqi (Surrender) Study Group" review

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The group lead by James “Velvet Hammer” Baker (called this for his political skills) is more velvet then hammers in the 21st Century. They say the key to flipping Syria to help us and away from Iran is to solve the Arab/Israeli conflict. No kidding? According the Hamas to have peace is their control of the Gaza strip and the West Bank. According to this study it would also mean addressing, “borders, settlements, Jerusalem, the right of return, and the end of the conflict.” Wow! I guess this same group wants us to give the southern U.S. to Mexico and the Mid-West back to France, Alaska to Russia and the East coast to England.

What this fails to take into account is that the Muslims in the Middle-East want to finish what Hitler started and kill all the Jews. Then they will continue with all the Christians after that. What are they thinking?

The failure of this administration is not in the objective, but in the execution of the war. For all my problems with F.D.R. and his social programs that we are still paying for today, he knew how to let his generals fight a war. Pres. Truman would have been almost incapable to drop “the bomb” on Japan with today’s pantywaists for advisors. The President Bush of today is only an echo of the man who stood on top of the ruins of the World Trade Center and declared, “I can you hear you! The rest of the world hears you! And the people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon!” They’ve heard us and are unimpressed.

Getting medieval on these people is what they will understand and respect. “Unleash hell” as a quote from the movie “Gladiator” suggests is the way to defeat the enemy. Take all the fight out of them and make sure anyone else in the region knows exactly what they will get too. But at last Pres. Bush failed, Rumsfeld failed and the Iraqi Study Group failed.

Chris Mendelsohn
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Wednesday, December 6, 2006

Iraq Study Group & Iran

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As we hear from the “Iraq study group” which with all the hype was to be Pres. Bush’s saving plan, but now looks like a retread of “duh” ideas. The very idea that we need to have changes in regional politics is both stupid and obvious. This is why we are there! We are there to change the political landscape of the Persian Gulf and introduce democracy to the region. It is going slower then anyone would like, but look at Russia, it took 45 years to defeat the Soviet Empire but even that form of democracy has failed.

The problem in Iraq is that we did not plan for the “after war” war and get everyone important on board. This lack of vision gave the insurgence hope and with Iran’s funding with weapons and man power have kept us off balance. Iran has, not masterfully but adequately, organized and executed a plan that has the west wondering why we are messing with these people. The simple answer is we need their oil.

We can not leave them alone because they control something we need to continue our life styles. We can not leave them alone because they are inhuman to their own, much less their attitude toward the “non believers”. We can not leave them alone because if left unchecked they would develop nuclear weapons and use them against the west, even if we had left them alone. The want us destroyed. When Ahmadinejad wants us to follow the teachings of God, it is not the Judeo/Christian God he is talking about. It is Allah!

Even the liberals should understand that this can not end well. They may not like the Christian right in this country and see them as something that is bad, but they have not began to contemplate what a country under Shi’a law would look like for them.

This website will continue to be the canary in the coal mine when it comes to Iran; they are the biggest threat to global stability and peace.

Chris Mendelsohn
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Monday, December 4, 2006

Democrats want to take away your Soc. Security!

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How the Democrats will privatize your retirement plan! "Democratic leaders in the House say they would like to gradually replace much of the tax credit with a program that would give annual matches for the first $1,000 used to create a retirement-savings plan."(free subscription to boston globe needed)

When Pres. Bush talked about “privatizing” part of your retirement the Dems yelled “Hell NO! You will hurt older poor Americans” Even though no one currently under 55 would change their retirement and you could always opt out and stay in the system as it is. Anyway, now that the Dems have the power back it sounds like a good idea because the current system will go belly up in a few decades.

This last year a Pension Act was passed so that if your company has a 401(k) you are already signed up unless you sign a waiver. Also in 2001 a non-refundable credit was passed to help with lower income (families make less then 50K per year) and are contributing to a retirement plan. However, because most of these people have no taxes, it is under used!

So now the Dems want to actually give the $1,000 in potential credit to your retirement plan. The details are going to fun for us tax preparers as well need to have routing number for those accounts. They can’t send you the check and hope you don’t cash it.

The irony is that the Dems know the system is busted but just used the same old play book on saying Republicans are mean people who want to steal poor peoples money. Hell they don’t have any to steal.

Chris Mendelsohn
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